This started out as a reply to MBlanc46, below, but I figure it’d be a good conversation-starter up here.
Most people on our side are dubious about Trump’s reelection chances. After all, the argument goes, he wasn’t supposed to win anyway — if his opponent hadn’t been an unprecedentedly awful candidate, running a beyond-slipshod campaign, he would’ve been toast in 2016.
Worse, now that he’s in office, he’s revealed as just another lying politician. Is a big beautiful wall currently under construction on the southern border? No? Then what’s the point of giving him another four years to not build it? When you screw up your signature issue, you’re toast — ask George H.W. “read my lips, no new taxes” Bush.
Worst, the Dems will at least bother to campaign in the Midwest this time. And as they always do, they’ll bring their illegals, their dead relatives, their pets, and their dead relatives’ dead pets to the polls with them. Republican candidates have needed to win outside the margin of fraud since 1868, but that margin gets bigger every year. Even Kim Jong Un would be embarrassed to win as heavily as the typical Democratic candidate does in places like Detroit.
All that is true. However, as noted in the post below, our side certainly isn’t immune to discounting the human factor. I’m not real optimistic myself about Trump’s chances, but I think they’re a lot better than we fear.
First, Hillary may have been an unprecedentedly awful candidate — no argument there! — but despite being older than Methuselah she’s the Democrats’ future in one key respect. Just as she had no reason for running other than “It’s my turn to be president,” so the Democratic Party as a whole has no reason to exist anymore. They’ve won, on every front that matters, and as much as Nancy Pelosi et al keep trying to get the band back together for one more show, it ain’t Woodstock anymore. The current crop of stick-it-to-The-Man Democrats have themselves been The Man for so long, they got senior citizen discounts at Jeffrey Epstein’s Pedo Island resort. The ditzy idiots in “The Squad” know this very well, even if Hillary and Nancy and Slow Joe Biden don’t. That’s why some big-titted goof who probably still gets carded back in el barrio roams the halls of Congress like she runs the place — because she does, and she’s as tired as the rest of us at listening to drooling senile Boomers and their delusions of peace love and understanding.
Under the circumstances, Hillary’s “Avert your eyes as you vote for me, filthy peons!” campaign strategy might actually have been the best bet. The only realistic alternative was “Fuck you, pay me!“, which, while it meshes perfectly with Her Thighness’s utterly venal soul, really belongs to the younger crowd. Folks like, say, Pete Bootycall or “Beto” or anyone who isn’t a whiter shade of pale. It’ll be AOC’s campaign slogan in 2024, but since they’ll need those drooling senile boomers one last time in 2020, whoever wins will have to go with “#OrangeManBad.” It’s all they’ve got to keep the coalition of the fringes together.*
Which segues nicely into point #2. Trump is, undoubtedly and in actual fact, just another lying politician. If I were running the Democrats’ campaign — and I’d be happy to, guys, for a modest low-seven-figure salary, please call me — I’d hammer that nonstop. The Fourteen Readers will recall that I offered the Dems this exact advice all the way back in 2015. The Media could’ve schlonged Trump’s campaign any time it chose, simply by covering him like a normal politician. They wouldn’t have to be fair — that’s a bridge too far — but simply covering Trump with no more blatant bias than they do for any other Republican candidate would’ve finished him.
But they didn’t, of course, because they’re stupid, and because they’re catastrophically stupid they volunteered to be the centerpiece of Trump’s campaign. He all but said “A vote for me is a ‘fuck you!’ to The Media,” but for all their well-tuned ears for “dog whistles” and such, The Media never heard it… which is why screenshots of CNN anchors looking terrified started making the social media rounds even before the polls closed.
In short: If any of Mike Dukakis’s people are still around, the Democrats absolutely should give them a call. Dukakis was a pretty terrible candidate, but at least he knew how to run a bread-and-butter, talk-about-the-issues type campaign. The fact that the Dems would have to go back that far, though, tells you just how deep the rot goes. Orange Man thrives on driving NPCs nuts. He wasn’t a New York tabloid fixture because of his antics — any one of the zillion guys making a phone number on Wall Street back in the 80s had similar stories — but because of his personality. Orange Man drives a certain type of limpwristed freak absolutely bonkers, and he takes great, sadistic pleasure in that. Running a point-and-shriek campaign against a guy who lives to be pointed-and-shrieked at is the dumbest thing they could possibly do…
…but it’s the only thing they know how to do. I’m sure there’s a pithy Sun Tzu quote for this situation, but you don’t have to be Napoleon to realize that charging straight up the chute at the enemy’s strongest point is a bad idea. But since everyone involved is one of the aforesaid limpwristed freaks, they can do no other.
Which brings us to voter fraud. Trump’s very narrow victories in key states like Michigan can’t be replicated, the black pill analysis goes, because this time the Dems will bother to “campaign there.” Combine the base-depressing effects of Trump selling out on his signature issue with the inevitable appearance of Al Franken’s car, and you’ve got traditional blue states going blue again…
Indulge me on a trip down memory lane, won’t you? I promise there’s a point at the end of it.
Back in college I had what should’ve been a little summer fling between my sophomore and junior years. I was working one of those country club-type jobs that comes with a prefab social circle — nothing bonds a bunch of hungry scholarship kids together faster than scuffling for tips from rich pricks and their trophy wives and their spoiled asshole kids. My “girlfriend” was a lot of fun, but utterly unsuitable for anything other than a fling — not only did she live several states away and go to a different college, but we were as different as two people can get. Opposites attract, and teenage pheromones seal the deal, and we both knew it…
…until one night we all got drunk on some booze one of our friends liberated from a wedding celebration. This buddy, drunk as only a 19 year old scholarship kid on summer break can be, sat my “girlfriend” and me down for a Very Serious Talk. We were actually terrible for each other, he said, and if we weren’t bored and broke and horny and pretty much high all the time, we couldn’t hardly stand to be in the same room together. If we’d been grownups, we’d have laughed it off, because of course he was right, and we knew it better than he did. But we weren’t grownups, so you know what happened next — it was True Love, and it took a semester’s worth of awkward phone calls and one very expensive trip to her ritzy private school to remind me that I never actually liked her all that much in the first place.
That’s Donald Trump, as seen from the perspective of the American electorate. Which “fact” about yourself is easier to swallow:
- that you got duped by a not-particularly-convincing orange con man with the world’s worst comb-over; or
- that it’s really True Love?
Now throw in the sanctimonious drunk buddy — this is The Media — self-righteously lecturing you on how stupid you are for having anything to do with this person. What do you think? What do you think the average American voter thinks? And remember, this thought experiment takes place in a vacuum — in the real world, it won’t just be The Media lecturing you. Imagine if the Democratic nominee is, say, Elizabeth Warren. I think I speak for a lot of Average Americans when I say I’d light myself on fire and jump off a bridge if Fauxcahontas told me it was a bad idea, because anything that walking toothache thinks is bad must be good…
I’m not optimistic, comrades, but I’m not despairing either. We’re in a lot better shape than we think we are. Keep your chins up, and if I’m wrong, well, you can tell me all about it when we meet in the reeducation camp.
*This assumes they’re acting rationally, of course, which with Democrats is never a safe bet. There’s a pretty solid chance their convention in Milwaukee goes kerflooey if “The Squad” gets impatient… and Millennials are hardly known for their impulse control. If that happens, Trump will have to roll in the tanks for real, and Shiloh II: Electric Boogaloo will be opening soon in a theater near you.