On the Nature of Evidence

The same sources which claim an American Nuremberg is imminent now claim that, even though nothing is happening, something’s about to happen, because look at all those sealed indictments!

The claim, as it now stands (someone might want to take a screenshot of this), is:

  • 1,077, normal number of annual sealed indictments
  • 4,188, sealed indictments as of 11/22
  • 9,274, sealed indictments as of 12/22

Let’s go Wehrmacht-style and attack two fronts at the same time.

First: Where does this “normal number of annual sealed indictments” come from?  Checking the linked piece, we see the following fine print:

How many are normal? 1,077 in all of 2006 per 2009 report.

I trust that I don’t have to expound on the difference between “annual” and “happened in 2006” to this crowd.  Nor the difference between “normal” and “happened once.”  Somebody with better google-fu than I is welcome to look further, but my quick search for “number of sealed indictments in a typical year” turned up nothing but conspirazoid-looking sites linking back to this here .pdf, the source of the “1,077 in 2006” statistic.

So, for the second part of our investigation, let’s take a gander at said .pdf.  The “method” section is enlightening, as it tells you just how the authors decided what counts as “sealed,” their various adventures in soliciting (and sometimes having trouble getting) responses from district court clerks, etc.  It’s worth a skim.

And now the numbers. The “1,077” number refers to sealed criminal indictments, the breakdown of which appears on page 17, with analysis following.  You can browse that at your leisure, but even a glance at the breakdown shows you there are lots of reasons criminal cases get sealed, many of which would require a bit of stretching to cover treason, pizza, or treasonous pizza — the 180 juvenile prosecutions, for instance, or the 70 misdemeanor drug charges.  Or consider the warrant-type cases:

There were 226 warrant-type cases: search warrants (10) and applications for wiretaps (19), sur-veillance devices (12), pen registers and trap and traces (151), telecommunication records (9), tax records (23), and other sources of information (2).

One is free to conclude that these types of things are all treasonous pizza-related, of course, but before doing so I suggest watching a few episodes of The Wire, particularly season 1.

To conclude, we have:
  • no basis for saying that 1,077 is a normal number of annual indictments;
  • no basis for concluding that sealed indictments correlate to treasonous pizza, and;
  • really, no basis for concluding anything at all, except that there are a lot more sealed indictments this year than there were in 2006.
See what I mean about this stuff?
There may be a treasonous pizza-related Götterdämmerung coming down real soon… or it might be yet another big fat nothingburger served up by folks with overactive imaginations and too much free time.  Really, y’all — schizo conspiracy theories are the Left’s thing, and if you want some good ones, I suggest taking a Liberal Arts course at any college in America.  Otherwise, let’s leave it be.
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3 thoughts on “On the Nature of Evidence

  1. Al from da Nort

    The only theory that makes half-way sense is that this (if it is a thing at all) is for MS 13-type illegals. They are *not* citizens and so do not have the rights of citizens or of legal resident non-citizens. So sending them to Gitmo on account of how demonstrably dangerous they are would follow the precedent of using the place to hold dangerous Jihadi’s captured on the field of battle* until their individual cases got sorted out.

    And they would make an attractive political target for a lot of reasons:
    – To begin with, they’re dangerous, amoral career criminals and thus a clear danger to the US public.
    – Simply deporting them will be ineffective because their country of origin had some role in their being here in the first place. What actual parent would put a minor child of theirs on top of a Mexican boxcar to the US border_?
    – They’re scary murdering thugs and not ‘cuddly dreamers’.
    – Sends a strong message encouraging self-deportation of other illegals.
    – Drives the Prog’s back into bat-shite crazy mode just in time for the 2018 elections.
    – Puts down a marker against ‘Sanctuary Cities’ while reviving the ‘Left is soft on crime’ issue that was so effective in the late ’70s and ’80s (effective because it was obviously and demonstrably true).

    *Under the so-called laws of war, those jihadi’s were ‘illegal combatants’ and could have been executed for war crimes. The Bush ‘catch-and-release’ program that we put into effect was the worst of all worlds, IMHO. Made us look weak and foolish to the enemy, was vastly expensive and destructive to front-line morale, etc. Not sure what would have better, frankly. Hard to buy that Obama’s drone killing is actually morally superior in any way.

    1. Severian

      That would be lovely. But it entails lots of FedGov folks having a spine, and I just don’t see it. Also, such a plan would have every sob-sister judge and attorney in America leaking to the press. IFF all those sealed indictments are coming from a few judges who openly wear underoos with pictures of Dale Earnhardt Jr. under their robes, I’ll believe it.

      1. Al from da Nort

        Well, quite a number of them *were* from Texas. So there’s a chance. But no doubt you’re right that it’s a slight one.

        I was mostly trying to see if there was actually a unitary theory that could connect the wishes with the known data. As you say the squealing would be epic. And epic squealing is actually not music to the average politician’s ears however much you or I might enjoy it.


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