I have some predictions as to what will happen here in the US, government-wise, in the next 10 years or so. I base these on my understanding of history — stuff like a viable 3rd party and fascism just seem obvious to me, based on the way things have gone in the past.
But maybe I’m wrong. Maybe I will end up looking very, very foolish — and I’d be thrilled to end up looking foolish. So let’s test it. Here are a few other things that I think will happen in the next few years, all else being equal:
Iran gets The Bomb. I don’t think anyone, His Choom-ness included, seriously disputes that this will happen, so it hardly counts as Muad’dib-leve prescience. But based on that….
Oil prices are going to skyrocket on the assumption that there will be a Mideast war sometime within the next decade. Oil companies will start hedging, of course, but as Presidents Obama and Clinton will surely veto any expansion of the domestic energy industry, we’re going to be hit particularly hard.
China will also start hedging and, as they give zero shits about Global Weather or anything else, they will develop an aggressive energy security policy. Which may mean war in the South China Sea (what else are those artificial islands for?). The annexation of Taiwan is, I think, nearly certain, and if I were them I’d do it now, so that it’s a fait accompli by the 2016 presidential debates (on the off chance that Hillary might let a comment slip on her total unconcern for foreign policy).
I’d also bet on China engaging in some neo-colonial adventuring in Africa — a state petrochem company “advising,” say, Nigeria on the “development” of their petroleum industry… with a private security force, of course, and an attache, and a whole lot of oil rig workers who look surprisingly like People’s Liberaton Army Special Forces.
Knowing this, Japan and India — no fools they — will step up their rearmament programs (which are already well underway). The Indians have nukes; the Japanese may acquire them. And if Vlad Putin running lots of “exercises” eastward for no good reason, things are about to hit the fan in a major way.
Speaking of Vlad Putin, a protracted Mideast war is great for his bottom line, so expect stepped up arms sales to Iran (aside from the big SAM sales they’ve already made, that is).
Chinese neo-colonial “aid” to their fraternal socialist brothers in Venezuela certainly isn’t out of the question, either.
Finally, I wouldn’t rule out a full-on conventional military invasion of Iran by Israel as their bomb gets nearer to completion, probably with the tacit acceptance, and maybe even open aid, of Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and the Gulf States. What choice do they have? Of course, Israel’s a democracy, so they may well vote to keep their heads in the sands, America-style. But with rising anti-Semitism all across Europe (and America), I’m betting they take Ahmedinajad’s Hitler-with-nukes rhetoric seriously. And it’s not like the Mossad couldn’t cook up a casus belli in no time….
Time will tell, of course. I hope I’m embarrassingly wrong on all counts.Loading Likes...