Science Update: Settled?

Socialists, cephalopods hardest hit.

Some highlights:

So far, no one has been able to provide a compelling answer to why climate change seems to be taking a break. We’re facing a puzzle. Recent CO2 emissions have actually risen even more steeply than we feared. As a result, according to most climate models, we should have seen temperatures rise by around 0.25 degrees Celsius (0.45 degrees Fahrenheit) over the past 10 years. That hasn’t happened. In fact, the increase over the last 15 years was just 0.06 degrees Celsius (0.11 degrees Fahrenheit) — a value very close to zero. This is a serious scientific problem that the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) will have to confront when it presents its next Assessment Report late next year.

Oooh, that’s gotta hurt.  This, too:

There are two conceivable explanations — and neither is very pleasant for us. The first possibility is that less global warming is occurring than expected because greenhouse gases, especially CO2, have less of an effect than we have assumed. This wouldn’t mean that there is no man-made greenhouse effect, but simply that our effect on climate events is not as great as we have believed. The other possibility is that, in our simulations, we have underestimated how much the climate fluctuates owing to natural causes.

And finally:

Von Storch also had this comment about the process of climate science “Natural science is also a social process, and one far more influenced by the spirit of the times than non-scientists can imagine.”

Doubt makes Squirty cry.

Doubt makes Squirty cry.

 

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4 thoughts on “Science Update: Settled?

  1. Captain Midnight

    I love this quote: “In fact, the increase over the last 15 years was just 0.06 degrees Celsius (0.11 degrees Fahrenheit) — a value very close to zero.” We have such sensitive equipment that we can measure the Earth’s global temperature down to the hundredth of a degree. Yay, science!

    Except to believe that accuracy, we’d have to believe that measurements from sites like this one in Tahoe are either
    1) not affected by the nearby burn barrel, or
    2) scientists with their big throbbing brains know exactly, down to the hundredth of a degree, the effect of that burn barrel on the temperature recording for that site and are thus able to remove the extraneous burn barrel effect from the final recorded temperature.

    I’m doubtful that either case is true.

  2. Severian

    Why, it’s almost as if belief in global warming is merely a way to confirm our own superior virtue… to assert that we matter in the face of an indifferent universe… to protect our own sense of specialness…. to lord our superior knowledge over the hoi polloi…..

    …..you know, like the left is always saying Christofascist Godbags do.

    Pish-posh, I say! Surely the psychology of Our Betters is so much more nuanced than that.

  3. Soozcat

    A few days ago we re-watched all three Back to the Future movies on DVD. The 2015 segment was especially interesting to watch, in light of all the things it didn’t accurately predict about the early 21st century: public telephones on the street and printed newspapers being sold in boxes, no signs of smartphones or e-readers, all sorts of technology using unrealistic computerized voices, household food rehydrators, ubiquitous hover technology, self-adjusting (and self-drying) clothes, and commercial fusion generators. Director Robert Zemeckis wasn’t entirely comfortable with including scenes of the future because, as he himself said, the future is so often mis-predicted.

    Despite our best efforts, we can’t successfully predict how technology will change society 25 to 30 years in the future. What makes us think we’ll have an easier time predicting how the biosphere will change? What presently-unimagined technology will come along to change the world in the interim?

    But hey, so many people’s reputations rest on climate change being Settled Science (TM). To them I want to say: hey guys, start small. It’s not too late to accurately predict September 2015. You’ve got two years and a few months to come up with a thumbprint cash system, bio-implants, a cure for obesity, high-tops with power laces, the renaissance of the household fax, hanging home fruit gardens, Mr. Fusion and flying cars. Get right on that, won’t you?

    1. Severian

      Problem is, none of these people who have been proven wrong — resulting in actual, measurable harm — will ever face the music. Remember Paul “Population Bomb” Ehrlich from the 70s? He’s still getting hefty speaking fees to preach doom’n’gloom to the Greens.

      Because they’re part of the Dumbest Generation of Narcissists in the History of the World, these guys will just flip their apocalypse predictions to something else, and refuse to answer questions about the previous apocalypse that didn’t go off. And we, also being part of the Dumbest Generation of Narcissists in the History of the World, will let them. And our kids, Dumbest Generation of Narcissists in the History of the World version 2.0, won’t ever know there was even a thing called “global warming.” Or “global cooling.” Or “global climate change.” It’ll be “atmospheric instability” or whatever the new euphemism is, and omigod we’re gonna die, and we have to ban flush toilets and automobiles NOW! For the children.

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