The Troubles 2.0

It was the Z Man, I’m pretty sure, who suggested that Post-America could well end up looking a lot like The Troubles in Northern Ireland. I didn’t think so at the time — I thought that if the “muh gunz” crowd were going to do anything besides talk, they’d have done it already — but after the events of 1/6 and the murder of Ashli Babbitt by the Uniparty’s thugs, I’d like to revise and extend my remarks.

First, may God forbid! If Americans ever do decide to do “armed struggle,” they’ll form an organization so brutally instrumentalist, it’ll make the Provos look like a pack of Girl Scouts. It’s like I’ve been saying about Fascism, capital-F, for years — if real Americans ever decide to give it a try, you’ll fucking well know it, since when White Americans get serious about something they go all the way, right away, and bend all their world-class, apex-of-human-ingenuity talents to the task of wrecking your shit. Ask Hitler and Tojo how that worked out.

One obvious objection to this is that Her Majesty’s forces, for all the wicked, illegal shit they got up to, were at least constrained by the vestiges of Western Civilization. Obviously the Bidenreich, being composed of “people” (in the strict biological sense) who either never were part of Western Civ, or who actively hate it, will have no such scruples. That’s true, of course, but there’s a limit to how brutal even the most brutal counterinsurgency can be, before it starts aiding and abetting the insurgents with its sheer hamfisted evil.

Which ties into, and answers, a second objection. I’m by no means an expert on this stuff — my knowledge of Ireland consists of a brief drunken vacation right after college, and some old family stories — but you don’t have to be a COIN collector to know that one of the reasons the Provos (and the INLA and the “Real IRA” and the “Official IRA” and all the rest, God alone can keep them straight) could survive for so long is that they existed within organic communities. There were “republican” families, going all the way back to Wolfe Tone, if not the guys who fought against Henry II, and everyone knew who they were. Ditto for the loyalists. Obviously America, enstupidated with social media and enervated by soulless urban bugmen, doesn’t have that…

Except that a) the vast American hinterland is actually far more organic than soulless urban bugmen imagine, and b) even soulless urban bugmen have a “community” of sorts. Imagine, if you will, that your next door neighbor in the apartment complex is a drug dealer. Actually I don’t have to imagine this. I spent my first decade or so out of college in the vast urban wasteland where I grew up, living the bugman life, and my next door neighbor for the first few of those years actually was a drug dealer. To be fair, I never actually saw him selling drugs. But everyone knew that Barry, let’s call him, was a shady dude who was up to shady shit. It truly did not surprise me, or anyone else in the building, when the cops showed up at Barry’s door late one night.

But that’s the thing: none of us was surprised. As in, we all knew, even though we were all soulless urban careerists. We also know what happened to Barry, which was: nothing. The cops had nothing on Barry but suspicions. Nor could any of us have told them anything, even if we wanted to, because even though we all knew Barry was a drug dealer, none of us had ever seen it. Finally, none of us really wanted to narc on him, not from fear of reprisals, but because we had a community of sorts and we all knew that Barry wasn’t a bad guy. Shady,  yeah. Not trustworthy, certainly. But a cool enough guy for all that. Why did we care how he made his extra money? He didn’t have people coming to his place at all hours. He kept to himself. No “street” shit ever happened in our building, so what’s the harm?

If that’s true of bugmen like we were, and a goof like Barry was, imagine how it is with serious people.

And while it’s true that the cops could’ve gone full NKVD on Barry — as the Bidenreich’s Negro Kangz Vengeance Department surely will — that would’ve been counterproductive. Nothing is more likely to turn people off the law than hamfisted repression… except hamfisted repression that the State’s security forces fuck up, which, being Diverse and Millennials to boot, they surely will. Imagine if they’d gone in guns blazing on Barry… and didn’t get him.

I can’t say this is the future, but I wouldn’t bet against it. Just in case you weren’t terrified enough this morning…

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23 thoughts on “The Troubles 2.0

  1. The Kaigat Of Wands

    Leaving aside the comment made a long time ago that the reason we never solved the Irish Question was that every time we got close to an answer the Irish changed the question, I don’t think you can even begin to draw conclusions from The Troubles. The IRA in its various incarnations was not attempting to overthrow a whole system of government, it was trying to make the English so fed up that we’d leave Ulster to its own devices, whereupon it would execute a (more Fascist than Marxist) takeover, despite not even having majority support among the approx 1/3 (in those days) of the people who were Catholic.

    It might be fun to fantasise here about taking potshots at Revenuers and other agents of the state, but the IRA isn’t an example to follow. There’s no way to make the people in power here so fed up with that sort of dissent that they’ll just relinquish control and leave like we could conceivably have left Ulster – where would they go? In the end the sort of stuff the IRA did was really quite low-level and sporadic. You’d need something hugely more widespread, frequent and hard-hitting here (hypothetically speaking).

    Unfortunately, I think, we’re left with demographics being destiny. Ulster might be a good example actually, the Loyalist population % diminishes as every year goes by and reunification will follow sooner or later. How the demographics play out here remains to be seen, I’m not optimistic – but delighted to be corrected!

    1. Severian Post author

      To be absolutely clear: I don’t think anyone *should* do this. Indeed, I sincerely pray they don’t. I’m suggesting, rather, that someone WILL do this, with all the horror and, yes, futility that entails.

    2. 3g4me

      Kaigat of Wands: I think you’re right, re demographics deterring sufficient sense of community to rebel against official overreach. Like you, would love to be wrong. I can easily see Mrs. NWL insisting she’ll stand in solidarity with Pajeet and Han ‘professional, just like us but better’ neighbors, but will Mr. NWL continue to go along after he loses his job, or his son is denied any college spot or meaningful work? I can understand Severian’s suggestion his long-ago neighborhood was a community of sorts, but I cannot so describe my suburban neighborhood today. Massive diversity, most mothers working, everyone coming and going via the alleys behind the homes, and I never see most of my ‘neighbors,’ let alone socialize with them. I actively despise all the Han, Pajeet, and GoodWhites. and would not hesitate to point out their homes if fascist death squads roamed hereabouts. Similarly don’t doubt they’d do the same to me when the NKVD comes calling.

    3. Pickle Rick

      There is one massive difference between Ulster and Redneckistan. Northern Ireland has, as I’m sure you knew, nine counties. My state alone has 67. The Queen’s redcoats, professionals all, in a time when only men with balls were humping rifles had problems galore in controlling Paddy in a geographical space smaller than the tiny state of Connecticut. The “mighty” US military couldn’t control Durka Durka Stan, a place smaller than Texas alone, with exponentially greater technology and resources, (although admittedly with much weaker “manpower” since our masters have decided that girls, gays and trannies in uniforms make better soldiers) If we decide to become ungovernable, a million bayonets would not be enough. The greatest problem is convincing lazy, fat, bitch made American men to act like men and become ungovernable. That’s why I’m praying that Dementia Joe and his marching morons really do show CivNat America the back of their pimp hand while gleefully wiping their ass with the Constitution, while Republicans like Mitch McConnell get on their knees and service them.

  2. MBlanc46

    I still don’t think that it’s likely, but it is possible. You nail the crux of the argument in para four. The guerrilla has to swim in the sea of the people. I’m not seeing that sea yet, but the coming of the NKVD (good one, by the way) will shock a lot of folks out of their complacency, civic nationalism, good old American conservatism, etc. And our enemies, although they seem all powerful right now, have some serious structural weaknesses. They are a Coalition of the Fringes (_pace_ Steve Sailer). The only thing holding them together is “Get Whitey!” Well, Whitey is just about got. So, What do they do next? Start tearing each others’ livers out, for starters. I’m old, my knees are shot, and I owe it to Mme B to try to have as peaceful a last decade as I can. But I do have the whiff of raising some Hell in my nostrils. I suspect that quite a few others are catching the scent as well. We shall see.

    1. WOPR

      The “whiff of raising some Hell” is a good description. Other than the pathetic Right commentariat, the response range from “Too bad they didn’t string up some Congress critters” to “I’m not condemning anything after last summer.”

      The problem the Establishment has is their attempt to create a narrative has only made them look weak. They can’t defend their own territory from a bunch of out of shape middle aged and older people. This is two decades after 9/11. The best they can do is shoot some unarmed woman climbing through a narrow window inside the building. No gov’t can afford to look weak.

  3. dave b

    In the past few months and especially since the election it is clear that people are PISSED and I have to think things will get spicy pretty quickly.

    There are only three ways this ends:
    1. total dictatorship and collapse like the Soviet Union – succession, or civil war. If leftist’s had brains – and yeah if that they wouldn’t be leftists – they would know that they always eat their own.
    2. Red state succession scenario – leftists will not survive – real life requires adherence to reality and those folks are living in la-la land. Critical Race Theory and 57 genders? Yeah, and unicorns farting rainbows.
    3. If we had a civil war – nobody who knows anything about history wants that but it would be a hoot, I give them a week and they would be begging for forgiveness. Think about it. Food? Utilities? Who has the guns? Dumbasses.

  4. Pickle Rick

    I’d maintain there are three specifically American examples to look at that might be instructive.
    The Potato Irish campaign in The Troubles ultimately failed-basically because they, as usual, went in for spectacular, suicidal, ultimately counterproductive violence, in the Celtic tradition of 1715, 1745, 1798, 1916…
    The other problem was inherent in their Marxist terror cell organization, as they continually spent more time killing each other to prove their revolutionary credentials and superior potatoheaded stubborn “Irishness” and devolved into a hydra headed monster with no central direction. I’m pretty sure that Sinn Fein couldn’t control all the splinter groups all vying to pull off spectacular bombings which envenomed the war into a cycle of reprisal and counter reprisal that took on a life of its own. They forgot what they were fighting for and just fought because that’s all they knew how to do.

    There’s two historical American examples that succeeded and one that failed we should look at. Southern success in defeating “Reconstruction”, successful passive resistance to Prohibition, and Southern failure in resistance to “Civil Rights”

    You’re up to bat, Sev.

    1. Severian Post author

      Yeah… the Irish. God love ’em, but… the Irish. But since Celtic blood is strong in those Americans who still have their stones, I’d expect some Irish-looking… spice… in the spiciness, if/when it comes.

      I’m not sure the passive resistance to Prohibition can teach us much. Not my area of expertise, but it seems to me that this, like women’s suffrage, was part of the general malaise that set in after WW1. Why not give the broads the vote? Why not Prohibition? Americans can always be counted on to disband the troops and stick their heads back in the sand the minute the big noise is over. It happened after the Civil War (see below), WW2, WW1, Vietnam — two years after any of them, and you could wonder if they ever even happened at all.

      Only the broads wanted Prohibition, just like only the broads wanted the 19th Amendment, and why put up a fight? I mean, why not let it happen? Maybe, if we pass them both, they’ll finally shut up and leave us alone. Again, I haven’t researched the period, but I get the distinct impression that nobody really thought they’d go through with it; surely nobody had any intention of actually stopping drinking, no matter what the law says. If it hadn’t been for Al Capone, the Prohibition laws would probably still be on the books — the hare-brained American public can get behind a fight against violent gangsters, but nobody’s going to ask the cops to vigilantly enforce lifestyle crimes. No Capone, and booze would be what weed is today — technically illegal, but anyone with a bit of savvy can get a nickel bag in any town in the country in under 45 minutes.

      The same thing happened with Reconstruction, too, in a way. The Northern public didn’t have the stomach to station troops in the South indefinitely. The only US troops up for the job were the Coloreds, and the few careerists who decided to stay on after the war — hired goons, in other words, since the Army back then was the last refuge of the scoundrel. The Radical Republicans — the Neocons of their day — would’ve been perfectly happy with an endless occupation a la Afghanistan, but the voters wouldn’t let them. They shot their wad with the failed impeachment of Johnson, and that’s all she wrote.

      Which is the only “positive” (if that’s really the word) thing I can say about the IRA model — the idea of creating “Indian country” out in the provinces, where even the hard boys fear to tread, is smart if the objective really is to wear the occupier down. In the Reconstruction South, the Feds were willing to use force to stomp the Klan, and they did succeed in tamping down the most excessive excesses, but the Feds simply lacked the resources to police the entire South.

      In 1870, in other words, the Feds didn’t have the resources or the stomach. This is very typically American, with the special bonus that just passive resistance was enough in most cases — the Yankees had to really commit to being a full-on Army of Occupation if they wanted to succeed, whereas the Crackers just had to live there. The freedmen had no idea what to do with their freedom, and so the Black Codes must’ve come as something of a relief to them, if we’re being honest — “freedom” in the South was meaningless, and those fucking hypocrites in the North weren’t about to let them move, so what, exactly, was the point?

      The difference now, of course, is demographics. Americans just want the bad stuff to go away, and would quite willingly stick their heads back in the sand, but… how many Americans are left? You can wear out the Yankees with a night rider campaign and passive resistance. Can you wear out Pajeet and Kung Pao? The American public won’t stand for the trouble and expense of maintaining an Army of Occupation on American soil….

      …. but Kung Pao and Pajeet aren’t Americans. They come from places where you need government permission to take a dump. and have to fill out three forms to wipe your ass after. Armed goons on the streets mean nothing to them (I love how the “gun control” crowd in America thinks we’re the only nation where the cops carry guns. Ever been to India? Serious hardcore motherfuckers, with big-bore weapons, are all over the goddamn place. When I was there, I met a buddy who had just flown in for business. He was staying at an upscale hotel. To go visit him, I had to go through a literal checkpoint — dudes with shotguns and that Chinese knockoff AK-47 they love to wave around over there).

      Will those guys tire of supporting an Army of Occupation? Or will it just seem like home to them?

      1. 3g4me

        Severian: “Will [Pajeet and King Pao] tire of supporting an Army of Occupation? Or will it just seem like home to them? ”

        This. See Virginia, gun control measures enacted and heavily supported by Pajeet and Kung Pao. Whites with guns patted themselves on the back for marching ‘peacefully.’ Then they went home and Pajeet and Kung Pao passed their laws anyhow. But those White men stood by their principles, by gum, and they didn’t lower their behavior to tribalism to do it. Such proud, virtuous failure. Rinse, repeat.

        1. Pickle Rick

          So how many of those guys, seeing the failure of the Richmond armed march, were in the crowd who decided it was time to break some shit in Washington last week?

          Whitey is (re)learning lessons. I think we’re going to see an evolution from useless failure theater. Quickly.

      2. Joseph Moore

        Unfortunately, the new junta has a lot of new toys unavailable to the British, and, as someone mentioned, no residual honor to give them pause before using them. I was just now writing something up on my blog about the problem new tech presents here. There can be no Indian Country anymore.

        Recall how O, as limp-wristed a teacher’s pet as ever walked the earth, a man who probably never faced an actual physical threat in his life, got to watch people 10,000 miles away die on a big screen with his buds. Yee-Haw! We done blowed them up good. It’s a video game to that crowd.

        They will pretend to regret the unavoidable collateral damage in the form of dead men, women and children when they drop the even more sophisticated Stinger missile equivalent on a red neck wedding where that one Bubba, who was a known terrorist because they put him on a terrorist list, was hanging out when his cell phone was triangulated from space.

        They will have rooms full of woke geeks watching their handiwork on big screens from secure locations, trying to level up by taking out everyone they can find on the extreme prejudice list. Indian Country will be less like the old West and more like the Irish peasants when Franklin visited, who scurried into their literal holes in the ground whenever the British rode by.

        All those tech mannequins in the new junta are wetting their pants at the opportunity to play the cool new game. With ever smaller, more precise drones, it will be very difficult for anyone they want dead to so much as step outside.

        Counterargument: Back to 1934 – who on the H-Man’s team gets the joystick? Who gets to put people on the list? Drones become yet another issue for them to eat each other over. But probably not until a bunch of people are dead.

        Hypothetically, of course.

        1. Severian Post author

          One upside – hypothetically – is that old school tradecraft is in for a big comeback. Look at the Empire’s legions in Durka Durka Stan – utterly dependent on their tech, and they still can’t do a damn thing. Yeah, they can triangulate Bubba’s cell phone from space… but what if Bubba doesn’t use a cell phone?

          (I think this is the other big reason the Empire has to resort to their current “use Special Forces for everything” paradigm. #1 is that the gays, girls, and trannies in the conventional forces just can’t fight, but #2 is that SF by definition can think outside the box. SJWs are not-so-high-functioning autistics; nerds are nerds; Asians are Asian. Nerdy Asian SJWs will be running the drones. If one must fight as a guerrilla – hypothetically – give me those for enemies, please!)

          1. Joseph Moore

            One assumption here I’m not sure I’m on board with: that our leaders *wanted* to get out of Durka Durka Stan – military-industrial complex and all that. If you ‘win’ – however defined – the people back home expect you to leave. But then where do you get to use all the cool (and expensive, and job-and-graft-providing) toys?

            I know nothing of military history, let alone tactics & strategy. But Ike seemed to be on target here (even more on the government-science complex: piper, tune, etc.).

        2. Some Guy

          The problem is at is always is, that actual physical troops are needed to hold territory. Smart bombs are expensive and require technical expertise to manufacture. Looking at the wokening of education and tech I can see a lot of the newer toys being the high water mark for western tech.

          1. Severian Post author

            That’s the other reason the Bidenreich’s repression is guaranteed to be hamfisted. They’re going to have to do Soviet style overkill – don’t use 5 troops where 50 will do; better yet, use 500! When everyone is afraid of showing initiative lest they attract the notice of the regimental political officer, you need sufficient force for every possible contingency.

            The wokesters in charge will have no idea what they’re doing. They’ll be trying to out-woke each other, plus they think it’s a video game and they can level up earlier. It will be spectacularly gaudy and stupid.

        3. MBlanc46

          Joseph Moore: On the high-brow book-talk show in Chicago quite a while ago, the book in question was on the future of warfare. The author—I forget who it was—maintained that despite the high-tech weapons, war would always come down to whether the man with the rifle was willing to stand up and fight. That seemed to have the scent of truth to it. If so, the question becomes, Is it our guys or their guys who will be willing to stand up and fight?

  5. Severian Post author

    Joseph Moore,

    That’s why I suspect someone will try setting up a Provo type organization here. Rebellion tends to be organized by pissed off veterans. It was amazing, watching those “support the troops, end the war” signs come down in Jan 2009. Why, it’s almost as if the Left doesn’t actually care about “the war” at all! They were all too happy to go along with the endless Wars for Oil ™, simply because criticism of them would imply criticism of President Sort of God. I thought war would be bad again in Jan 2017, but no, the Left had bigger fish to fry (when they weren’t actually bragging, a la Hillary, that they were much better at war than Orange Man).

    Meanwhile the army was still out there, dying for who knows what reason, to accomplish fuck all.

    And now they’ll be stop-lossed (remember the few weeks when the Left pretended to care about that? summer 2005, maybe?) into some new adventure by a dementia patient from a rigged election.

    That tends to make corporals mad.

  6. ganderson

    “ Leaving aside the comment made a long time ago that the reason we never solved the Irish Question was that every time we got close to an answer the Irish changed the question”
    One of my professors in college used to say that- he was the best lecturer I ever had.

    Joseph Moore: Nice to hear from Big Jim Mc Bob and Billy Sol Hurok!

    One issue that has the potential to really “ blow up good” is college loan forgiveness. What better way to say bleep you to all the deplorables out there!

    1. Severian Post author

      Permit me to be almost insanely juvenile and petty for a moment:

      One of the toughest tests of my character will come when that happens. When I first decided to throw over the rat race and go into academia, the most common reaction among my friends was “won’t you be paying debt on that for the rest of your life?”

      “Nope,” I’d reply. “College loans are going to get wiped out pretty soon.” (Never mind that I’d made other arrangements; I was having fun. Again, juvenile and petty, I fully admit).

      “But…but…but…” would come the reply. You know the drill. It’d crash the economy. It’s unfair. It’s blah blah blah.

      “Nonetheless,” I persisted, “it’s true. What can’t continue indefinitely, won’t. The college loan scam is ‘too big to fail’ now, and it has been for a long time. Eventually there will be a big enough ‘market correction’ to stress the system, and that will be that. Plus, don’t forget that the majority of people in debt up to their eyeballs for college vote Democrat, and of course liberals think college should be ‘free’ anyway, because that’s how they do it in Europe.”

      (Had we been having this conversation a decade later, I’d have added “plus, forgiving college loans is a great way to punish the Deplorables; they’d do it for that reason alone”).

      When that day comes, my friends, the temptation to email all my old work buddies and say “neener neener neener, guess who was right AGAIN” will be just about overwhelming.

      This is a blot on my character, I realize. I hope I can manfully resist.

    2. The Kaigat Of Wands

      Alas, like me, your professor was quoting, I hope he didn’t claim it as his! The original version is in the chapter on Disraeli and Gladstone in “1066 And All That” – which is highly recommended if you have a reasonable knowledge of English history. Interestingly, it ends with Chapter LXII, in which, following WWI, “America was thus clearly top nation and History came to a .”

  7. Some Guy

    I hoe that when they do roll out student loan forgiveness that it will be “equitable”. Let all those bern outs live up to their fake morals and swallow the fact that they get to keep their debt while LaSquisha and Jorge get theirs erased.

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