Trump’s Chances

This started out as a reply to MBlanc46, below, but I figure it’d be a good conversation-starter up here.

Most people on our side are dubious about Trump’s reelection chances.  After all, the argument goes, he wasn’t supposed to win anyway — if his opponent hadn’t been an unprecedentedly awful candidate, running a beyond-slipshod campaign, he would’ve been toast in 2016.

Worse, now that he’s in office, he’s revealed as just another lying politician.  Is a big beautiful wall currently under construction on the southern border?  No?  Then what’s the point of giving him another four years to not build it?  When you screw up your signature issue, you’re toast — ask George H.W. “read my lips, no new taxes” Bush.

Worst, the Dems will at least bother to campaign in the Midwest this time.  And as they always do, they’ll bring their illegals, their dead relatives, their pets, and their dead relatives’ dead pets to the polls with them.  Republican candidates have needed to win outside the margin of fraud since 1868, but that margin gets bigger every year.  Even Kim Jong Un would be embarrassed to win as heavily as the typical Democratic candidate does in places like Detroit.

All that is true.  However, as noted in the post below, our side certainly isn’t immune to discounting the human factor.  I’m not real optimistic myself about Trump’s chances, but I think they’re a lot better than we fear.

First, Hillary may have been an unprecedentedly awful candidate — no argument there! — but despite being older than Methuselah she’s the Democrats’ future in one key respect.  Just as she had no reason for running other than “It’s my turn to be president,” so the Democratic Party as a whole has no reason to exist anymore.  They’ve won, on every front that matters, and as much as Nancy Pelosi et al keep trying to get the band back together for one more show, it ain’t Woodstock anymore.  The current crop of stick-it-to-The-Man Democrats have themselves been The Man for so long, they got senior citizen discounts at Jeffrey Epstein’s Pedo Island resort.  The ditzy idiots in “The Squad” know this very well, even if Hillary and Nancy and Slow Joe Biden don’t.  That’s why some big-titted goof who probably still gets carded back in el barrio roams the halls of Congress like she runs the place — because she does, and she’s as tired as the rest of us at listening to drooling senile Boomers and their delusions of peace love and understanding.

Under the circumstances, Hillary’s “Avert your eyes as you vote for me, filthy peons!” campaign strategy might actually have been the best bet.  The only realistic alternative was “Fuck you, pay me!“, which, while it meshes perfectly with Her Thighness’s utterly venal soul, really belongs to the younger crowd.  Folks like, say, Pete Bootycall or “Beto” or anyone who isn’t a whiter shade of pale.  It’ll be AOC’s campaign slogan in 2024, but since they’ll need those drooling senile boomers one last time in 2020, whoever wins will have to go with “#OrangeManBad.”  It’s all they’ve got to keep the coalition of the fringes together.*

Which segues nicely into point #2.  Trump is, undoubtedly and in actual fact, just another lying politician.  If I were running the Democrats’ campaign — and I’d be happy to, guys, for a modest low-seven-figure salary, please call me — I’d hammer that nonstop.  The Fourteen Readers will recall that I offered the Dems this exact advice all the way back in 2015.  The Media could’ve schlonged Trump’s campaign any time it chose, simply by covering him like a normal politician.  They wouldn’t have to be fair — that’s a bridge too far — but simply covering Trump with no more blatant bias than they do for any other Republican candidate would’ve finished him.

But they didn’t, of course, because they’re stupid, and because they’re catastrophically stupid they volunteered to be the centerpiece of Trump’s campaign.  He all but said “A vote for me is a ‘fuck you!’ to The Media,” but for all their well-tuned ears for “dog whistles” and such, The Media never heard it… which is why screenshots of CNN anchors looking terrified started making the social media rounds even before the polls closed.

In short: If any of Mike Dukakis’s people are still around, the Democrats absolutely should give them a call.  Dukakis was a pretty terrible candidate, but at least he knew how to run a bread-and-butter, talk-about-the-issues type campaign.  The fact that the Dems would have to go back that far, though, tells you just how deep the rot goes.  Orange Man thrives on driving NPCs nuts.  He wasn’t a New York tabloid fixture because of his antics — any one of the zillion guys making a phone number on Wall Street back in the 80s had similar stories — but because of his personality.  Orange Man drives a certain type of limpwristed freak absolutely bonkers, and he takes great, sadistic pleasure in that.  Running a point-and-shriek campaign against a guy who lives to be pointed-and-shrieked at is the dumbest thing they could possibly do…

…but it’s the only thing they know how to do.  I’m sure there’s a pithy Sun Tzu quote for this situation, but you don’t have to be Napoleon to realize that charging straight up the chute at the enemy’s strongest point is a bad idea.  But since everyone involved is one of the aforesaid limpwristed freaks, they can do no other.

Which brings us to voter fraud.  Trump’s very narrow victories in key states like Michigan can’t be replicated, the black pill analysis goes, because this time the Dems will bother to “campaign there.”  Combine the base-depressing effects of Trump selling out on his signature issue with the inevitable appearance of Al Franken’s car, and you’ve got traditional blue states going blue again…

Indulge me on a trip down memory lane, won’t you?  I promise there’s a point at the end of it.

Back in college I had what should’ve been a little summer fling between my sophomore and junior years.  I was working one of those country club-type jobs that comes with a prefab social circle — nothing bonds a bunch of hungry scholarship kids together faster than scuffling for tips from rich pricks and their trophy wives and their spoiled asshole kids.  My “girlfriend” was a lot of fun, but utterly unsuitable for anything other than a fling — not only did she live several states away and go to a different college, but we were as different as two people can get.  Opposites attract, and teenage pheromones seal the deal, and we both knew it…

…until one night we all got drunk on some booze one of our friends liberated from a wedding celebration.  This buddy, drunk as only a 19 year old scholarship kid on summer break can be, sat my “girlfriend” and me down for a Very Serious Talk.  We were actually terrible for each other, he said, and if we weren’t bored and broke and horny and pretty much high all the time, we couldn’t hardly stand to be in the same room together.  If we’d been grownups, we’d have laughed it off, because of course he was right, and we knew it better than he did. But we weren’t grownups, so you know what happened next — it was True Love, and it took a semester’s worth of awkward phone calls and one very expensive trip to her ritzy private school to remind me that I never actually liked her all that much in the first place.

That’s Donald Trump, as seen from the perspective of the American electorate.  Which “fact” about yourself is easier to swallow:

  • that you got duped by a not-particularly-convincing orange con man with the world’s worst comb-over; or
  • that it’s really True Love?

Now throw in the sanctimonious drunk buddy — this is The Media — self-righteously lecturing you on how stupid you are for having anything to do with this person.  What do you think?  What do you think the average American voter thinks?  And remember, this thought experiment takes place in a vacuum — in the real world, it won’t just be The Media lecturing you.  Imagine if the Democratic nominee is, say, Elizabeth Warren.  I think I speak for a lot of Average Americans when I say I’d light myself on fire and jump off a bridge if Fauxcahontas told me it was a bad idea, because anything that walking toothache thinks is bad must be good…

I’m not optimistic, comrades, but I’m not despairing either.  We’re in a lot better shape than we think we are.  Keep your chins up, and if I’m wrong, well, you can tell me all about it when we meet in the reeducation camp.



*This assumes they’re acting rationally, of course, which with Democrats is never a safe bet.  There’s a pretty solid chance their convention in Milwaukee goes kerflooey if “The Squad” gets impatient… and Millennials are hardly known for their impulse control.  If that happens, Trump will have to roll in the tanks for real, and Shiloh II: Electric Boogaloo will be opening soon in a theater near you.
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19 thoughts on “Trump’s Chances

  1. ryan

    I must be out of the loop here. Trump’s an incumbent. He’s sold out to the men with the very deep pockets. The economy is doing well. Even those of us who can admit to the con still prefer 4 years of GOP bullshit to 4 years of Democrat bullshit. I think he’s in dead girl/live boy shape to win. That can change I think only with cucking on gun control or amnesty.

  2. WOPR

    The only way Trump nukes his chances is if he signs a control law. If that happens, make sure you buy gun and ammo stock because there will be a rash of sales in preparation for CW2: The Worser One. Everyone on the right will know Trump is done.

    I figure a lot of people of a lighter hue are going to vote Trump simply because what other choice is there? The ascendant peoples can barely control their urge to make PoaLH pay. Give them power and peace won’t last long. The only people who don’t want to admit or are blind to all of this are the cucks. They’ll be denouncing each other on their way no kneel before the ditch.

  3. MBlanc46

    Not optimistic, but not despairing, either. That’s probably the most rational response we can make at the moment. Will enough of the folks who had previously voted Dem, or had given up voting, but came out for Trump in 2016 bother to come out for him in 2020? Have enough Third Worlders been imported since 2016 to turn a few key states? We just don’t know. It’s possible, given the Leftist bias of most polling, that we won’t know until the morning after the election—or even days later, as in 2000.

    A final word about the Dem nominee: I do think that Fauxcahontas is a threat. FREE STUFF! and being—or at least claiming to be—opposed to the bankers and the speculators aren’t the worst positions to take with the white working class. But, being the walking toothache is a definite negative. In my view, Joe Biden is the biggest threat. He’s the only one of them who looks—and he’s building his campaign around this—at least in low light, as if he’s sane. Yeah, he commits a lot of gaffes, but his Lunchbox Joe persona might just pull enough of the white working class to be decisive.

    1. Severian Post author

      I think Dances with Socialism is a threat, too. She has a coherent platform, for one thing. It’s neither sane nor original, but even I must admit the campaign slogan “stick it to Wall Street!” grabs my gonads a little. Unlike Hillary, in other words, she offers the electorate a reason to vote for her other than “you grubby little people owe me.”

      But I think the walking toothache factor overcomes that, as does the self-evident fact that she’s really, really, really dumb. Hillary at least exhibited a kind of low cunning — she wasn’t nearly as clever as she thought she was, but she had the ratlike intelligence of, well, a rat. They’re dumb little rodents, but damn if they ain’t hard to catch. Warren, by contrast, is stupid right down to the bone. She’s the kind of prof whose students bet each other bar tabs to see how ludicrous an assignment they can turn in and still get an A.

  4. Martinian

    My outlook is a bit rosier, largely because I doubt many people are super-invested in the wall. I think there are a significant number of Trump base voters (not to mention the rest of the populace) who had absolutely zero expectations for him and perhaps were even on the fence about whether a wall was a good idea, let alone an acceptable one. It certainly was a motivating factor for a lot of people, but remember that the overarching problem was the fact that the GOP was selling out its base on EVERYTHING, not just the immigration issue. Lots of people who were highly skeptical of Trump, even being NeverTrump well into fall of 2016, had expressed major beef with the GOP system of “failure theater” throughout 2015 and farther back. In other words, immigration may have been *the* hot button issue (not least because the media promoted it as an easy way to play the race card), but it masked a whole host of other issues that were all ultimately predicated on deep dissatisfaction with the GOPe.

    At the end of the day, I find it hard to believe that so many people are single-issue voters on the wall, esp. given the degree to which Trump has delivered on important things like judicial nominees, abortion, fighting the culture wars, etc. Remember, no one had any reason to expect Trump would do anything on any of these fronts, much less more than the “conservative” GOP had done over the past 2-3 decades, and yet here we are.

    This isn’t an “OMG I (heart) Trump!” argument; it’s a pragmatic calculation. I certainly didn’t expect it (no one did), but I think I’m getting pound for pound more out of Trump for my voting interests than I ever expected out of any GOP candidate in living memory. And as a reminder of just how bad the GOP has been over the past several years, I just told a Lefty friend of mine who asked me what I thought of the Democratic Primaries that perhaps the most damning criticism I could give was that it reminded me of a Republican Primary. Look at the feckless clown-car of incompetence they have, and tell me it doesn’t remind you of the dreary, stage-managed s#!tfests of 2008, 2012, and 2016.

    1. Severian Post author

      There it is. All the Dems competing to be the best Not-Trump they can possibly be, just like all the Republicans in 2012 and 2016, competing to be the best Not-Obama they can be. If any of those idiots actually settled down and started focusing on issues they’d be real trouble… except that in order to do that, they have to get past the rabid SJW gatekeepers in the media. I honestly don’t know how they’re going to pull it off. When Tulsi Gabbard and Andrew Yang sound like the only grown-ups in the room — including the audience and the moderators — you’re in deep, deep shit. As I’ve written before, I think this is the year The Media goes all-in — they want a full-on SJW candidate, with all their hearts and souls, and they’re going to make damn sure they get one.

      1. WOPR

        The odd thing about the 2016 election is that if you stripped away the Trumpian theatrics, Trump really focused on the issues. Can anyone say what Hillary wanted to do? Can anyone name the policy positions of the Republican candidates? You knew the rot was bad when not one single Republican candidate tried to steal his issues. This time around, the Dems are busy squashing anyone who has a different idea to prevent what happened to the Republicans (who thought whichever candidate survived would easily take out Trump.)

        I don’t know how much it matters though because the Dems almost have locks on enough states to win by default.

  5. Publius

    I learned last time around that I had no idea what was going on.

    I’m not going to pretend to know this time, either.

    As for the Wall, I don’t see what more he could do short of digging holes in the dirt himself. The entire political class is fighting against this redoubt by redoubt. The Gopes wouldn’t give him the funding, neither will Speaker Mars Attacks. He goes an end around, and he’s got the thicket of Hawaiian judges to hack through. I don’t know how much of his base really faults him for the lack of it.

  6. Frip

    Sev: “you got duped by a not-particularly-convincing orange con man with the world’s worst comb-over” LOL!!!!!! God that hurts. I feel so stupid now. Stupider than I already felt. Desperate fools, all of us, wanting to beleive. The thing about that sentence is the “not particularly convincing”. So true. He’s not even good at what he’s known for. I was on the phone yesterday with a shady car dealership and the service manager who’s screwing me over was way more smooth and convincing than Trump. Effing service manager from some pissant car dealership.

    Love the personal vignettes. Funny, yet poignant.

    “a semester’s worth of awkward phone calls and one very expensive trip” Never had the awkward phone calls. But “one very expensive trip”, definitely. And an even more expensive cross-country trip back. She treated me so bad from the moment I’d arrived, that only two days into what was supposed to be a week stay, I called up the airline and said I want a ticket back to LA right now. “Sir that’s gonna be $850, are you sure.” “Book it”

    She said, “Love me, ” so I love her
    She said, “Leave me, ” so I left
    Then I went to California
    And I ain’t never comin’ back

    I gotta hi-five from a brother
    I got bloodstains on the bed
    And I ain’t sayin’ that I love her
    But this bitch is gonna drive me mad

    I kept wishing I would die
    That whole plane ride home
    And I wish I could
    I know I should leave you alone

    1. Severian Post author

      So that’s who “Post Malone” is. I was wondering. Apparently he’s one of the Basic College Girl’s bare necessities.

  7. MBlanc46

    Did folks see the post over at Vox Day today (SAT, 17 AUG)? He reports that voter registration is up in states that voted for Trump in 2016. He lists PA, but omits OH, MI, and WI. He sees it as evidence of a Trumpslide. I’m going to restrain my enthusiasm, but it is a datum.

  8. MBlanc46

    WOPR: The cheating will be huge. And the Dems are much better at it than the Repubs. But I don’t think that turnout means nothing. In recent years, turnout is the single most important factor in deciding an election. It’s early days, and, as I said, I’m restraining my enthusiasm, but if the 2016 Trump voters do come out again, things could get interesting.

  9. contrariandutchman

    Predicting 2020 makes a fun parlour game precisely because it is so unpredictable

    Trumps reelection chances? A Tossup I think. It shouldnt be, but here we are.

    Trump has rather little to show for his first term (yes, judicial appointments isnt bad) but he got nuthin on his signature issues. So now he is just another useless lying rino.

    But with the democrat base and media (but I repeat myself) so radicalized and all the D hopefuls forced to tack hard left the eventual candidate might just be a little too radical for white centrists.

    In the end it will probably hinge on the timing of the next recession. If it starts for real before november 2020 Trump is toast, if not, he has at least an even chance. He knows this, so has been talking up the stock market and picking a fight with the “squad” in preparation.

    I am not sure how much it will matter in the grand scheme, Trump is the last GOP president and even if reelected will be a lame duck his entire second term.

  10. contrariandutchman

    oh, and a note on AOC:

    Are you quite sure she is stupid? I mean, nothing she says makes any sense as policy, but is it good -politics-? Come to think of it, she is 29, has a safe congressional seat, national name recognition, is effectively wrestling the speakership of the house from the claws of Pelosi and is deemed presidential timber roughly a decade before she is even eligible while building the electoral coalition that can see her through. And to cap it she is now swimming in donor money. I want some of that sort of stupidity for my own side.

    My own base case is that we are looking at the rise of comrade vissarionovich-cortez

    1. Severian Post author

      There’s no real word to describe AOC. I tried with “Basic College Girl,” but unless you’re familiar with the type I’m afraid that doesn’t really work…

      You can sum up all the various reasons I retired to “the students,” but explaining just why this is so beggars my powers of description. It’s something like this: Basic College Girls aren’t stupid. Nor are they sociopaths, but they’re close to both. Their “stupidity” is more like “invincible, malicious ignorance” — if they don’t already know it, it’s not worth knowing, and you’re an asshole for trying to make them engage with it. Seriously, they’re confrontational about it — since they live their lives on social media, pointing out their lack of knowledge made me a “h8r,” which requires that they get up in my face… and, of course, proves that they’re right not to know whatever it is, because having “h8rz” means they’re winning.

      They really do act like this. It looks terrible there on the page — it can’t possibly be right — and yet I assure you it is so.

      As for the sociopathy, it’s a direct consequence of 20 years marinating in self-esteem culture. Since nobody’s different from anybody and everyone’s the best at everything, there’s no reason they shouldn’t get whatever they want, whenever they want. They have no grasp that things like “due dates” exist for a reason, because what could that reason possibly be? The only explanation, again, is that I’m an asshole who is persecuting them. That being the case, they have no problem tossing out the most egregious lies, just to see if they can get away with it…. and once more, I’m the asshole for doubting that they’ve just lost their sixth grandma of the semester to cancer.

      That’s bad enough, but what’s worse is when I bust them, because then their reaction is… nothing. They absolutely cannot grasp that they’ve done something wrong. If anything, they’re mad that they have to go to the effort of coming up with a new lie. Otherwise they just shrug it off.

      It’s weird, and it’s eerie, and it’s disturbing as hell. They act the way I imagine little Pavlik Morozov acted. It’s creepy, and that’s what I see in AOC. Alexandria Vissarionovich-Cortez? Oh da, comrade — very much da.

  11. contrariandutchman

    Her “basic college girl” (I think I know the type in my surroundings) attributes are useful in politics no doubt. But “genius sociopath” seems a better description then stupid then.

    So, I take it that either she seeks to establish a heritage and goes full Bonaparte once she is presidente eterno or I get to write “The Great Terror II: shit gets serious”?

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